“Google Will Kill ChatGPT” and Other Overhyped AI Predictions We Heard In 2023
Here are some predictions that I doubt will happen in 2024 or the near future (and why I think so).
2023 was the year of AI. Every month, we’ve seen new AI tools being launched, advancements in the field, upgrades, and more things that kept the field of AI moving.
Overhyped AI predictions weren’t missing in 2023 either. Throughout the year we heard things like “AGI was (or will soon be) achieved” or “AI will take everyone’s job.”
Here’s why I think they’re overhyped and doubt they’ll happen in the next years.
1) “Google Will Kill ChatGPT”
Almost every month there’s a new ChatGPT killer … at least that’s what we see on the media. The latest ChatGPT killer (by consensus) was Gemini Ultra, a tool that beat GPT-4 in the benchmarks but isn’t available yet to the public.
Even if Gemini Ultra is slightly superior to GPT-4, tech superiority doesn’t always translate to market dominance and Google knows that (probably that’s why they created too much hype with their demo).
I checked some articles and videos that claim Google will kill ChatGPT to find out how they came to such conclusions. Here are some of the arguments I found.
Google is light years ahead of OpenAI when it comes to data.
Google’s stock has been on the rise because many believe in their AI investments.
The educational market will determine who is the winner of the AI race (and Google is apparently doing well there).
I don't think any of these arguments are enough to claim that Google will indeed kill ChatGPT.
Why? Well, #2 is not a good metric to say whether a product will kill its competitor. Recently, Google shares sank following reports that some of their AI Gemini Ultra demo was faked. This doesn’t mean Gemini Ultra is a bad model or that it can’t compete with GPT-4 but shows the consequences of Google overhyping its own product.
On the other hand, even if #1 is true, it’s not enough. Google might have the resources to create a tool to compete toe to toe with ChatGPT, but that doesn’t guarantee the success of its product. In fact, some of the AI products released by Google were very disappointing.
When Bard was launched many realized it was years behind ChatGPT. In 2023, Bard’s monthly visits were very low if you compare them to ChatGPT.
Even if Gemini Ultra is better than ChatGPT, remember this — tech superiority doesn’t always translate to market dominance.
There are better web browsers than Chrome
There are better phones than the iPhone
There are more advanced operating systems than Windows
However, none of these products were killed by its competitors due to its tech superiority. AI was all over the media only after ChatGPT was released and that gave OpenAI an advantage over its competitors
Finally, #3 is a good point, but Google isn’t a clear winner in the AI educational market. They might’ve released products like NotebookLM that target the educational market, but it can become another experiment that ends up in the Google Graveyard. Time will tell.
2) “AI/ChatGPT is overhyped. Soon people will lose interest”
Some people don’t understand that AI is here to stay. Hypes don’t last forever, but if a product meets the expectations of users, it will not suddenly disappear.
In June, ChatGPT had its first monthly drop in traffic since launch and many were already saying things like “people are losing interest in chatbots” or “the ChatGPT/AI hype is over”
It seems they forgot school season ended in June in the USA, so fewer students were using ChatGPT during summer vacation.
Yes, ChatGPT traffic slowed over the summer but has since recovered to near-peak levels. ChatGPT dropped to 1.4 billion worldwide visits in August, but it bounced back to about 1.5 billion in September and reached around 1.7 billion visits in October.
Just in November, OpenAI CEO announced that 100 million people are using ChatGPT on a weekly basis and over 2 million developers are currently building on the company’s API. This shows how both users and developers are making ChatGPT one of the fastest-growing services ever.
I doubt AI will lose all its charm anytime soon.
In 2024, AI news might decrease, the media might give less coverage to AI, and people might talk less about AI on the internet. That’s normal because hypes don’t last forever and whether this decreases or increases will depend on how the field of AI evolves, but there’s one thing clear — AI is here to stay.
3) “AI Will Take Everyone’s Jobs”
I can’t count how many times I read the phrase “AI will replace us.”
Many said that writers, programmers, and analysts would lose their jobs to AI soon and that some professionals were already replaced by AI in 2023. However, a study on The State of AI in 2023 doesn’t show that.
Here are some of the study’s findings based on responses from people involved in AI initiatives at about 350 organizations.
A net +37% of all respondents increased headcount over the last 12 months
A net +60% of all respondents anticipate that headcount will increase over the next 12 months.
Just 17% of all respondents indicated a reduction in headcount over the last 12 months and just 3.5% attributed AI as the primary reason for headcount reduction
Another study revealed that 14% of workers have already experienced job displacement due to automation or AI, while in a recent report of 750 business leaders using AI, 37% said that AI replaced workers in 2023. That said, there’s also a feeling that AI is enabling business leaders to restructure and redefine the jobs we do. Companies will still need someone to prompt the AI, make sense of the results, and take action.
This shows once again that the current fears of AI replacing us may exceed the actual impact. Many businesses have integrated AI and more are exploring its adoption, but this doesn’t necessarily equate to immediate job loss.
Instead of fearing change, we should prepare for it and learn those skills that will help us survive in the age of AI.
There were other claims like “AGI was already achieved” and “AI will reach human-level intelligence” that I don’t think will happen anytime soon (if you don’t believe me, read what an AI expert thinks about this here).